$MU a favorite name here; cup & handle; ABC on daily

If you've been following, you know i'm still holding MU from the 40s, and still buying dips when the opportunity presents itself.  I will look at some option calls today i think.  

The weekly is showing a nice cup and handle, and zooming into the daily the handle is formed by an A-B-C correction pattern.  We have a little more downside before that finishes, but keep in mind their earnings is this week.  Stock buybacks are incoming, which should raise the SP alone by ~ $10/share as the buybacks happen.  

 

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$BTC 6 month bear wave closing?

I had a previous post where i was guessing wave 5 was ending short (without pushing past wave 3 low), and obviously that was 1) not obeying elliot waves and 2) wishful thinking? 

either way, it looks like we've got a good 6 month long 5 waves down.  typically my wave 5's are about 120% from the wave4 to wave3, so that would put BTC at about $58xx.  so far it hasn't breached into the 5k's again, so i'm still holding out on thinking this was a bottom of wave 5.  

The other main cryptos however... the waves breakdown and don't really follow all the rules. 

$BCH hasn't dipped lower than wave3 yet, under $600 would be the official 5 wave count

$LTC's chart breaks down in that the price action went past the wave1 top during the wave3 run. 

$ETH looks good except is nowhere near a wave5 down - it would have to get under $350 again for that.  

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weekend update $SPY $E_S $AMD $ONCY $CGC

Hey folks, just an update on things - first, the posts have been missing lately due to an accident that put me in the hospital.  I am now out, but wheelchair-bound and only 1 good arm, so bear with me on posts.  

It looks like we saw a good market surge this past week to get out of its previous 15/16 day base. We're sticking to that wave 4 finished it's ABCDE pattern and we're now gunning for S&P 30xx for wave 5 at minimum.   it wont be a straight shot there and will take time...

$AMD - tech has rebounded gloriously. If you followed my posts on $MU and bought those dips or gap fill, you should be holding from 48-ish or mid 50s. We've seen $MSFT and $INTC wedge break to new highs recently, and AMD has been non stop climbing for some time.  Finally it is taking a breather, so it looks like a great stock to buy on weakness.  wait for red days, IMO. The upper trendline it broke recently sits around a good fib number.  not sure it will reach that, but lets see.

$ONCY - finally back on nasdaq and trading well.  They put out a small offering when uplisting, but the stock price barely came near the 5.83 offer price.  i had bids to add more there and nothing filled.  i expect to see continued strength on this as news continues coming in.  countdown to p3 start and more partnering.

$CGC,$CRON - if you're just getting into the weed game, you're late.  but not too late...  $CGC recently uplisted from the OTC and is widely considered the blue chip of weed stocks.  buy on weakness and just hold long term.  $CRON has also been a good stock to play for weed, and this one dropped when the canadian senate passed the weed bill this week.  i am holding october calls and will add stock if it dips further here.  also check out $SPRWF as a cheaper alernative that also looks ready to rise.

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$BTC.X $LTC.X $ETH.X $BCH.X

i posted this on ST the other day, here's the updated chart.  I'm still going with the assumption that we're in a wave 2, wrapping up after running through an ABCDE formation.  This is after the big bear wave in crypto since December.  I'm betting on a June crypto run... 

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The oil pullback $CL $USO $DNR $CRC $WLL $CPE

So we've got a good oil pullback happening before the long weekend - thanks russia? Oil is good for 80+ this summer, so ignore this noise and look for bargains.  A few showing here... i think DNR / CRC could be the most %'s to gain, maybe even WLL.  I have CPE on this list because they are pretty oversold and near a bounce, even with their just-announced offering to pay for an acquisition.  They are worth watching, not sure about leaping into them now though.  

As with most of these charts, those 61% fibs are the most ideal, but some of these strong names may not hit there.  Oil will need another couple red days for them to do it, so who knows... 

I am definitely focused on DNR here, specifically looking for under 4.  Let's see what we get.  Have a good long weekend, happy trading!

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$HPE pullback to the 200

seems to have held up there decently after a big ER drop.  With a weak market (thanks to oil) going into a 3day weekend, I'd just watch.

Personally i'm looking at picking up some oil plays on this weakness.  More coming... 

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$SPY $MU $ONCYF $CGC $KEM $LOW big update, multiple charts and buying happening

I've been quiet on the posting front lately, mostly doing quick stuff on stocktwits when I can.  So today will have a large amount of charts and thoughts for a bit of catch up...

$SPY $ES - Obviously broke out of the ABCDE correction and now I've been looking for some sort of A-B move during this overall wave 5 to new highs and more. Big bullish candle on the SPY yesterday, but futures/spy are still in between 2 fib lines and still basing here.  

 

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On the tech side of things look at $MU and $AMAT (and $NVDA for that matter). NVDA filled a gap premarket yesterday, but offered no chance at getting that filled in market hours.  MU buys from 48-49 were so good the other week (posted on ST), and AMAT's big beat and big drop is a big buy IMO.  it hasn't recovered yet, so I think that is still a buy.  at least for a gap fill to 53ish.  If MU tries to fill the gap to 56ish, BUY!  

Quick note on $ONCYF - They are going back to the nasdaq tomorrow!  a 1:9.5 RS will happen to bring it over the $5 threshold for institutions buying, and they said they would wait to do the up-list for when they have partner news to couple it with.  SO... expect something to come out in the next week or so.  

$CGC is up-listing today to NYSE.  Previously was $TWMJF on otc ($WEED.CA on TSX).  This is known as the blue chip of weed, so literally just find every dip to buy and hold.  I'm looking for near $40 on this swing, but long term i think it can go much much higher.  

$KEM - a huge beat on ER last week but beat up regardless.  check the chart, i think it can rebound here.  

$LOW - a huge plus for getting marvin as CEO (previously of HD... then JCP).  I see this as big news for a beaten down stock.  LOW is in my DGI.  

 

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$ONCYF $ONC.CA update

yes, this is one of my long spec plays and will remain a holding... I just want to give an update on it. 

From a technical perspective, we can see it broke yet another long down trend.  If you look at this weekly chart, that looooong downtrend back in 2016 was broken and thats about where I bought the majority of the shares.  I continued to add (and sell on spikes) whenever it pulled back to that support trend line area (i say area because it has broken through it a few times).  We also have the 50ma crossing above the 200ma on this weekly chart, so that is very bullish.  

You can now see a good channel forming with the top nearing .95 USD right now.  With the onslaught of news lately, a pending nasdaq uplisting coupled with a partner news and RS to get it over the $2 min for nasdaq, i see it continuing to rise.  Possibly we see it breach the $1 mark for them to announce a 1:3 RS, another partnership, and a nasdaq uplist, all within the next month.  I think those 3 items will all be looped together within days of each other, but we'll see.  

The downside here? of course oncy is known to not hold it's gains on spikes, but i think there's too much positive stuff happening this time.  Zacks of course came out with a $2.25 target (raised from $1.50), so i think it's very viable to hit 50% of their target in due time. Again, time will tell, but everything seems on track here. 

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$BTC.X $LTC.X accumulating on wave2?

Taking a look at crypto this weekend... as a side note i have been consistently adding since the bottom (or what looks like bottom) in crypto.  I missed out on the really cheap buys, but i'm taking advantage of what I think is a wave 2 underway here.  2 charts, both obviously similar.  BTC and LTC... I do have ETH, and ETH looks very strong, but I have not been focused on accumulating that. 

If I'm right that we're looking at wave2 down after the wave1 up from the bottom in April, then wave 3 should be underway in June and that could really rip higher for all 3 of these.  We'll see!

I also found a nice little resource for getting crypto data into google sheets, so now i'm tracking holdings that way, just like my DGI folio.  

 

$ERX $DNR $MRO $OXY energy soaring

I mentioned a few of these over the recent posts, and more often on stocktwits... everyone should have been positioned in energy quite well when we saw oil break that key 66 level.  I am holding several energy plays long in the DGI (XOM, HP, OXY, EPD), but also swinging names like MRO and DNR. 

Today i've got DNR's monthly chart plotted with oil.  Oil is the purple line in the chart here... If we see oil get back to those high levels (i think 80 minimum is on track here, maybe 100 later this year?), then DNR should follow.  Do the same on your charts and take a look.  the daily is following a lot closer, but i wanted to show a long term trend here.

 

$SPY $SPX $E_S breaking out with energy leading?

Honestly it's been all about patience lately, waiting to see if the charts play out.  Today's futures looks as if they are indeed playing out with a major wave 5 up beginning.  Oil on a major breakout, so those energy names should be going well for people $MRO was a swing most recently, but i've also just got into $DNR as well.  

$LABU is still a legit swing, $SOXL dips to $120s were excellent buys.  

I posted on stocktwits recently about china names coming back too.  look at $JD on this dip... $IQ ("chinese netflix"), $JT $PPDF for financials, $YY $WB, even $TCEHY. $MCHI if you want a china fund for everything.  

Back to the chart below, it's just the latest with my pattern drawn out.  Looking for a good rally above the trend today.  I'd expect a dip back to that breakout point at some point, then a bounce to new highs in the coming months.  After that, we'll see... 

$SPX $SPY

Everyone is still waiting to see if this correction is done or not... perhaps everyone is exhausted of waiting at this point, and that's probably a good time to be buying.  I think fundamentals will prevail here soon and the technicals will support the upward move, but we'll see.  Very impressive earnings so far.  I think i read somewhere around 80-84% of earnings are beats this quarter, compared to 50-60% average. Bulls will step up and take us to new ATH's, it's just a matter of when.  

Speaking of new ATH's, $MSFT and $INTC hit new highs for me last week, and my DGI holdings on them are up over 50% now. 

So here's the SPX chart.  I have the same stuff on the SPY and /ES, but this one is a bit less cluttered and i'm only zoomed into the past ~12 weeks or so for the correction period.  I think it's a clearly defined ABCDE wave - but now what?  We should go up to test 270x this week at the very least, but will we hit resistance and fall back to the 200ma (or further)?  Seems to be do-or-die time as not breaking out this week will likely take us lower.  I'm still very bullish for everything long term, but I would like to see the market make up it's mind this week.  May starts Tuesday... perhaps a good turn point? 

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$MLCO an old play

You can see my old trend/flag drawings on this chart still, back when i played it a bit last year.  I haven't watched it since, and it looks to have done much better than what i had expected.  a recent breakout (again) and a pullback to the top of the [old] channel it was in.  that channel line also happens to be a 61.8 fib line from the recent run low to highs, so definitely worth a watch here.  do be aware that earnings is coming up if you play it. 

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$PAA

Another chart worth a watch soon.  Nice breakout not long ago, and i'd look for some consolidation and pullback to the 61.8 or the 50.0 fib lines.

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$HRS

$HRS looks like it's been laughing it's way through the correction.  finally coming down a bit to a 34ema on the weekly, and daily here is showing it coming near the first major fib from a huge run up.  Worth a further look on this one - I know nothing about the name yet, just the chart got my attention! 

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$SPY ready to rise?

futures chart here, looking a lot like the long hateful correction is nearing an end.  ABCDE wave complete on wave 4?

Dip buying has been the name of the game, but I'm ready to get back to 'normal' swings... 

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$NTLA do or die time...

presentations/data coming up on this, and that $76 PT from an analyst in march is still lingering.  was it a complete fake out or is this ready to bounce off the long trend line?  we shall see.  if you play it, keep a tight stop near closing IMO.  the chart turned ugly yesterday and is seemingly bouncing back today.  

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